The Capture of Antonio Osegura Cervantes

The Mexican Government captured the brother of the overall leader of one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico. The country was ready for a violent reprisal but nothing happened. Why?

On Tuesday, December 20, 2022, the Mexican Army (SEDENA) captured Antonio Oseguera Cervantes alias “Tony Montana”, the brother of the overall leader of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes alias “El Mencho.”

The arrest of Tony Montana caused Mexican authorities to put their security forces on high alert, especially in the state of Jalisco, a stronghold of CJNG. Mexican authorities, and many cartel observers, believed that CJNG would conduct reprisal attacks or locally known as “‘Culiacanazo” to force the Mexican government to release Tony Montana. Fortunately for the Mexican states, CJNG did not conduct any major attacks which leaves the question: why not?

The lack of reprisal attacks from CJNG left many Mexican observers puzzled as to why would CJNG allow the Mexican government to capture the brother of El Mencho without a fight? There are two possibilities that might explain why CJNG didn’t resist Tony Montana’s capture but first, what are Culiacanazos?

Culiacanazos is the term used by Mexican observers that was first coined after the failed capture of Ovidio Guzmán López (son of Sinaloa Cartel kingpin Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán). When Mexican authorities managed to capture Ovidio in Culiacan, Sinaloa on October 17, 2019, the Sinaloa Cartel made the city of close to one million people into a warzone. Open battles were recorded, vehicles and businesses were burned, and the city was effectively cut off by the cartel. The Mexican government released Ovidio to stop the violence in the city causing a precedent Mexican cartel could use if their leaders were threatened: do another Culiacanazo.

Since the forceful liberation of Ovidio, Mexico has seen repeated Culicanazos that challenge the Mexican government ability to target high profile cartel leaders. CJNG, being one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico, willingly attacks Mexican civilians and institutions to achieve their goals.

In August, Mexico witnessed probably the worst level of Culicanazos seen by CJNG. On the evening of August 09, 2022, reports began to circulate that “RR” the leader of “Grupo Elite”, a powerful and violent faction of CJNG, might have been captured by Mexican authorities in Zapopan, Jalisco. Shortly after, videos and photos came out of massive attacks against vehicles and businesses across Jalisco and its neighboring state, Guadalajara. The attacks paralyzed both states and by the next morning, it was confirmed that the CJNG attacks allowed “RR” to escape.

Tony Montana was not only the brother of El Mencho, but also a key CJNG operative. Reports have shown he managed the financial and logistics portfolio for the cartel. As such, CJNG would have a vested interest in retaliating after his capture to send a message to Mexican authorities that such actions against senior leaders of the cartel are not acceptable. Two possibilities exist that might explain such a lack of a response: either El Mencho is not as influential as conventionally believed or Tony Montana became an acceptable sacrifice for CJNG to placate the Mexican government

SEDENA press release after the arrest of Tony Montana

El Mencho, a Figurehead

Not much is known about the so-called leader of CJNG. As such, there is much speculation that El Mencho might not be the overall leader of the cartel and serve more as a figurehead. There are even multiple reports that state El Mencho might have died due to health complication. The lack of a violent response by CJNG to the capture of Tony Montana could support the theory that El Mencho is nothing more than a figurehead. If CJNG managed to conduct dozens of attacks across two Mexican states after reports that “RR” was in danger, why wouldn’t CJNG do even more serious attacks against the arrest of his brother? The arrest of Tony Montana supports the theory among some analysts that El Mencho does not command the authority over CJNG that other cartel leaders have such as Mayo Zambada. El Mencho could simply be a propaganda figure that is detached from any operational oversight for the cartel.

Tony Montana, an Acceptable Sacrifice

The other distant possibility is that CJNG might have allowed Tony Montana’s capture so that Mexican authorities could claim a win against the cartel.  Earlier this month, Colonel José Isidro Grimaldo of SEDENA, was captured and likely killed in Jalisco. Mexican authorities quickly accused CJNG of such kidnapping and mounted a significant operation to find and capture CJNG operatives as a retaliation. CJNG might have given up Tony Montana to the Mexican government to calm the situation. These tit for tat between the Mexican authorities and cartels is not new. Powerful cartels generally understand that certain Mexican government officials, especially senior SEDENA officers, should not be attacked and if they are, then they can expect a severe response by the Mexican government. The most glaring example is when the Arellano Felix Organization (AFO) mistakenly killed Cardinal Juan Posadas Ocampo. This assassination caused such an outrage that Mexican authorities mounted multiple operations targeting AFO, with the cartel even reportedly giving them locations of safe house and the operatives responsible for the killing to manage the Mexican response. The Mexican government and the cartels have unwritten rules that govern how they operate. If one side crosses a line, the other can expect a violent response.

In conclusion, the capture of Tony Montana is a symbolic victory for the Mexican government but will likely not degrade CJNG ability to operate across Mexico. CJNG continues to be a powerful force with international reach. We will likely never know why CJNG did not respond violently to his capture, but one thing is for certain: Culicanazos are here to stay.